Study on flood forecasting for Son La, Hoa Binh and Tuyen Quang reservoirs in the Red river

Abstract

     Since 2007, there are many reservoirs have been built and operated in the upstream of the Red river in Chinese territory which caused the changing of flood flow to downstream. This paper proposes an alternative for flood forecasting to some main reservoirs in downstream of the Red river in order to mitigate the damage of flood. The auto-regression method is used to simulate the inflow to some hydrological stations near the border. The Hec-HMS model is applied to simulate flow of contributing areas using the output of meteorological model MM5. Number of acceptable flood forecast point in time using auto-regression model are 60% and 68% in Muong Te and Bac Me respectively. The number for inflow forecasting to Son La, Tuyen Quang and Hoa Binh reservoirs using the Hec-HMS model are 63%, 50% and 74% respectively.