Application of exponential smooting to forecast the total output and export of rice and tea of Viet Nam in next year

Abstract

     Agricultural products of Viet Nam, spectially rice anf tea, have been contributed a considerable role in total export value of Viet Nam. However, since impacts of many domestically and abroadly random factors the forecasted total out puts of agricultural products and capacities of their exports with the rapid changes of international markets have been made many problems, which made the economy considersably suffer.

    Exponential smooting is a method of calculating a trend. According to this method, the trend value at time t is a weighted average of all available previous values, where the weights decline geometrically as one goes backward in time. If the time series contains a great deal of random variation, it is often advisable to choose a relative small value of a smooting contant θ. On the other hand, if one wants the smoothed time series to reflect relatively quickly whatever changes occur in the average level of the time series, the value of θ should be set at a high level.

    This method can be used to forecat diffente items in differen areas with cheap, fast, simple, and rather mechanical manner.