Study on mid-term flood forcast for the Ca river basin

Abstract

    Mid-term flood forecast for river basins in Central Provinces in general and for the Ca River Basin in particular has become an urgent matter. By overview studying on mid-term flood forecast in Vietnam and in the World, this research has selected the integrated hybrid modeling scheme between deterministic and stochastic models such as HEC-HMS with ARIMA(p,d,q) and EANN (Evolutional Artificial Neural Network) with ARIMA(p,d,q) models to build a suitable mid-term flood forecast for the Ca River. The integrated hybrid modeling scheme allows us to take advantages of both traditional and new modern models. Application results for the Ca River is very good, thus the integrated hybrid modeling scheme can be extendedly applied to other river basins in Central Provinces.