Application of regional climate model to project extreme climatic events and their impacts on water resources in the Dong Nai river basin and vicinity areas

Abstract

    This paper gives the projection of development of extreme temperature and rainfall in the middleand the end of 21th century and their potential impacts on water resources in the Dong Nai river basin and vicinity areas by using Regional Climate Model (RCM) CCAM to dynamical downscalefrom 5 Global Climate Models (GCMs) for scenarios RCP8.5 and RCP4.5. The result showsasignificant rise of daily maximum and minimum temperature compared with the based period, especially in Vung Tau station. Number of days with maximum temperature above the 90^th percentile and 35°C tends to increase, higher rate in higher average temperature stations. Number of days with minimum temperature exceeding 90th percentile also increases evenly across all stations. Although maximum 1-day, 3-day, 5-day precipitation at all other stations are in the upward trend, the changes in Bao Loc and Phan Rang station are unclear. It is supposed that this projection of extreme temperature and rainfall in the future will lead to sometypes of natural disasters related to water resources in this area, such as floods, droughts, saltwater intrusion.