RESEARCH FOR VALUE ASSESSMENT AND TERMS FORECAST OF METEOROLOGICAL DROUGHT BASED ON THE MOISTURE INDEX UNDER THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN NINH THUAN - BINH THUAN PROVINCEs

Abstract

Ninh Thuan - Binh Thuan are the two provinces with the driest climate conditions in Viet Nam. This is the biggest disadvantage of nature for agricultural development in particular and economic development in general of the two provinces. On the basis of a series of hydrometeorological data and climate change scenarios, applying the method of calculating the meteorological drought index MI and the statistical model, the article has studied and calculated the drought fluctuations, the degree of extremes of meteorological drought and the possibility of drought in the future in Ninh Thuan-Binh Thuan province.
According to calculations at Cam Ranh, Phan Thiet, and Phan Rang stations, the MI index of the vast majority of years is less than 0.4 (severity of drought). The frequency of occurrence from mild to severe drought in the dry season accounts for 57.1% to 92.9% depending on each station. Especially, even in the rainy season at Ham Tan and Phan Thiet stations, mild drought accounted for nearly 60% of the study years. According to the climate change scenario, in the coming years, the duration of drought in the two provinces will not change much, however, the degree of drought tends to increase in intensity and frequency. Therefore, localities need to be proactive in socio-economic development planning, take measures to adapt to drought, especially in the context of climate change in order to minimize the damage caused by natural disasters in general and drought, especially in each province of the study area.