APPLYING ARIMA MODEL TO PREDICT COMSUMER PRICE INDEX IN VIETNAM

Abstract

This paper used ARIMA model to predict Consumer Price Index (CPI) of Vietnam in the second quarter of 2016. Secondary data for research was collected from General Statistics Office of Viet Nam from January 2010 to March 2016 and was estimated via Eviews 6. The result showed that ARIMA(2,1,1) was suitable approach to forecast CPI. The fitted CPI in the second quarter of 2016 was 159.5409%, 159.5447%, 159.5234%. This ARIMA model can be used by policy makers and entrepreneurs for the prediction, planning, and business planning.