Estimating cement - related emissions from Clinker production in Ninh Binh province and proposing greenhouse gas mitigation measures

Abstract

The cement industry - characterized by high energy consumption and significant CO₂ emissions, particularly from clinker production - is one of the key sectors requiring close monitoring and control. This study conducts a CO₂ emissions inventory from cement production in Ninh Binh province using the Tier 2 methodology proposed by the IPCC (2006). Additionally, future emissions are projected over the next 11 years through Monte Carlo simulations, with uncertainty analysis conducted to enhance the reliability of the results. Findings reveal that greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in Ninh Binh increased by approximately 14,62 %, from 7,5 million tons of CO₂ in 2016 to 8,6 million tons in 2019. However, due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, emissions in 2020 decreased to around 7,7 million tons. Projections indicate that, if current trends continue, emissions could reach approximately 9,21 million tons by 2025 and exceed 10,55 million tons by 2030. To mitigate greenhouse gas emissions in Ninh Binh’s cement sector, it is necessary to reduce electricity consumption and adopt alternative fuel sources. It is estimated that without mitigation measures, Ninh Binh may incur around 309 million USD in environmental costs, including carbon tax and energy expenses. Through this research, the authors aim to contribute both data and methodological approaches to support Vietnam’s national greenhouse gas reduction targets, particularly within the cement industry. The study also seeks to bridge climate science and environmental economics, laying the groundwork for future interdisciplinary research.