Using grey models for forecasting Vietnam’s renewable energy consumption

Tóm tắt

Vietnam has actively pursued its commitments under the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and has been an engaged participant in the Paris Agreement under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP21). One of Vietnam’s key obligations is to drive a significant energy transition aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The development of renewable energy sources is an essential global endeavour, given their crucial role in reducing greenhouse gas emissions, protecting the environment, and decreasing reliance on fossil fuels. This study employs grey forecasting models (GM(1,1), NGBM(1,1), and DGM(1,1)) to predict Vietnam’s renewable energy consumption from 2023 to 2030. The analysis reveals a substantial increase in renewable energy demand, with forecasts indicating considerable growth: GM(1,1) predicts 632.2 TWh, DGM(1,1) anticipates 602.5 TWh, and NGBM(1,1) projects 557.7 TWh by 2030. Among the models, DGM(1,1) yields the most accurate results, with the lowest mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 6.76%. This forecast aligns with Vietnam’s
ambitious renewable energy development goals, aimed at diversifying its energy mix and meeting climate mitigation targets. The findings highlight the importance of continued investment in renewable energy technologies, infrastructure, and supportive policies to secure a sustainable energy future while
balancing economic growth and environmental preservation. This research offers valuable insights for policymakers in shaping Vietnam’s energy transition strategies over the coming decades.