Ứng dụng mô hình MIKE và ECOLab mô phỏng lan truyền các chất ô nhiễm trên hệ thống sông rạch ở tỉnh Vĩnh Long (Bến Tre cũ)

Abstract

Under the pressure of population growth and economic development, the environment -particularly surface water - has been significantly affected. Socio-economic (SE) development has led to an increase in wastewater discharge, causing environmental pollution. This study aims to assess the surface water carrying capacity in Vinh Long Province (formerly part of Ben Tre Province) and forecast conditions to the year 2030 in relation to emissions from SE activities and climate change (CC). The research team applied the hydrodynamic model MIKE 11 to determine the flow field and water column depth, in combination with the MIKE ECOLab ecological module to calculate water quality in the Vinh Long River under the influence of both human activities and environmental factors. Simulation results of pollutant dispersion showed that the average concentrations were as follows: BOD - 6.78 mg/L, DO - 5.53 mg/L, NH4⁺-N - 0.62 mg/L, NO3⁻-N - 1.52 mg/L, PO43⁻-N - 0.18 mg/L, Coliform - 3.84 MPN, and temperature - 21.7°C. These results are consistent with both calculated and field-measured data. The simulated salinity intrusion scenarios for 2025 and 2030 indicate that salinity begins in February and ends in April, with a potential for increasingly severe inland salinity intrusion due to rising sea levels over the years.