Đánh giá tác động của biến đổi khí hậu đến năng suất cà phê và giải pháp thích ứng tại khu vực Nam Tây Nguyên, Việt Nam

Abstract

Climate change (CC) has been increasingly impacting agricultural production systems in Vietnam, particularly in the Southern Central Highlands- a key coffee-growing region with strategic importance for national defense and security. This study aims to assess the trends of climate change and its effects on coffee productivity in the Economic- Defense Zones (EDZs) under Army Corps 16, while proposing suitable adaptation solutions tailored to local conditions. A systematic, interdisciplinary approach based on ecosystem-based adaptation (EbA) and community-based adaptation (CbA) was applied, combining qualitative methods (surveys, interviews, expert consultations) and quantitative analyses (meteorological data series from 2004- 2024 under the RCP 8.5 scenario). Results indicate that the average temperature has increased by nearly 1°C over the past two decades and is projected to rise by 3- 3.5°C by the end of the 21st century, while dry-season rainfall has decreased by 5- 10%, leading to severe droughts and a 15- 25% decline in current coffee yields. The study proposes a set of adaptation measures, including strengthening irrigation and reservoir infrastructure, applying water-saving irrigation models, using organic bio-fertilizers, and intercropping shade trees to enhance climate resilience. The findings provide a scientific foundation for planning climate-resilient agricultural development in the EDZs of the Southern Central Highlands.