The impact of foreign direct investment and export-import activities on the economic growth of Ho Chi Minh city

Abstract

The relationship between foreign direct investment, export-import, and economic growth has consistently captured the interest of economists and policymakers. Notably, there is a scarcity of research focused on a specific provincial or city level, making it challenging to assess their impact at the local scale. This study employs a quantitative research methodology, utilizing a Autoregressive Distributed Lag model (ARDL), to examine the impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) and export-import activities (EX-IM) on the economic growth (GRDP) of Ho Chi Minh city. The research data consists of quarterly time-series data from the period 2010- 2025, collected from periodic reports provided by the People's Committee; the Department of Statistics of Ho Chi Minh City; General Department of Vietnam Customs and the Electronic Information Portal of the Ministry of Planning and Investment. The results present that both FDI and export-import have a positive effect on the city's economic growth. Based on these results, the study proposes several recommendations, including diversifying and enhancing export value, selectively importing advanced technologies, improving the quality of FDI attraction, and maintaining macroeconomic stability to foster the city’s economic growth in the coming period.