Dự báo chất lượng nước trong điều kiện biến đổi khí hậu kết hợp mô hình một và hai chiều cho lưu vực sông Đồng Nai

Abstract

Urban water quality is an emerging water problem in developing countries as a result of increasingly untreated discharges from rapidly expanding industrial and residential zones. Industrialization and urbanization have boosted the economy of the provinces in the Dong Nai river basin, but the quality of water is also deteriorated drastically. When climate change has caused the increasing occurrence of extreme conditions and eventually the deterioration of water quality, the prediction of urban water quality helps control water pollution and protect human health for sustainable development. This study investigates water quality responses to climate change in the Dong Nai river basin using a coupled 1D-MIKE11 and 2D-MIKE21 hydrodynamic model and MIKE-Ecolab model to quantify four environmental indicators, including Dissolved Oxygen (DO), Biochemical Oxygen Demand (BOD), Nitrate, Ammonia. Forcing data for the 1D model include hourly upstream discharge at the Tri An reservoir and four downstream water levels at coastal stations. The 2D-MIKE21 model, which is used to simulate water quality in the urban area of Bien Hoa city, is fed by 24 pollution point sources (factories and plants). Modelling results reveal that there is an overall increasing trend in chemical components and pollution rates in the Dong Nai river basin and Bien Hoa city in spite of wastewater treatment efforts. Further modelling studies are needed to understand the impact of future changes owing to climate and development on pollution dynamics in the region, when monitoring and inspection activities of municipal authority should continue to ensure that economic development does not result in environmental damages.