Diễn biến mực nước trong hệ thống thủy lợi Bắc Hưng Hải ứng với các kịch bản suy giảm nguồn nước từ cống đầu mối Xuân Quan

Abstract

This study presents the simulated results of water level changes in the Bac Hung Hai irrigation and drainage system using the hydraulic model MIKE 11. First, the model is validated using the data in year 2017, revealing that the model has reproduced the observed water levels at different locations in the system very well. The mean square error and absolute error of water level at the comparison locations range only from 2,59 to 13,1% of the observed magnitude of water level. The correlation coefficient between calculated and observed water levels at locations varies from 0,77 to 0,98. Then, the MIKE 11 model was applied to simulate the water level changes ressulted form the three scenarios corresponding to the decrease in the water level at the Xuan Quan sluice gate (i.e., H = 1,85, 1,40, and 1,0 m). For the scenario of water levels as H=1,85m and 1,40m at Xuan Quan sluice gate, the water level in the system varies significantly in both space and time. The water level in the Kim Son river varies from 1,85 to 1,26 m for the H=1,85m scenario, while the above value changes from 1,40 to 1,21m for the H=1,40 m scenario. For the third scenario as H=1,0 m, the water level in the Kim Son changes from 1,0 to 1,17 m and there is a reverse water flow in the system.