New climate pledges only slightly lower dangerous global warming projections

Abstract

The sixteenth edition of the United Nations Environment Programme's (UNEP) Emissions Gap Report (EGR) 2025: Off Target, reveals a persistent and perilous chasm between climate ambition and the emissions pathways required to meet the Paris Agreement goals. This paper critically analyzes the report's key findings, specifically focusing on the minimal trajectory shift resulting from updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), the alarming forecast for a 1.5°C overshoot, and the necessary scale of decarbonization required by 2035. While the projections under NDCs have slightly improved to 2.3°C - 2.5°C (down from 2.6°C - 2.8°C), this marginal gain is insufficient to avoid a major escalation of climate risks. The analysis emphasizes the necessity of immediate, system-wide transformations across energy, finance, and land-use sectors, arguing that the political will to accelerate near-term cuts remains the most formidable barrier to limiting the extent and duration of the predicted temperature overshoot.