Forecasting greenhouse gas emissions in Vietnam by 2030 and policy implications

Abstract

In an effort to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to achieve net zero emissions by 2050, the Vietnamese government has implemented numerous policies and approaches to transform the economic growth model associated with the reduction in GHG emissions. However, statistics show that GHG emissions in Vietnam still increase, which poses a challenge for the Vietnamese government and requires GHG emissions forecasts to re-plan strategies for GHG emission reduction for the next decades. This study forecasts GHG emissions in Vietnam by 2030 using the ARIMA model and time series data over the period 1970–2022 compiled from EDGAR. The results indicate that GHG emissions are projected to increase from 489.16 MtCO₂eq in 2022 to 635.57 MtCO₂eq in 2030, with an average annual growth rate of 3.33%. The findings reveal that GHG emissions' growth and structural transformation are associated with Vietnam's economic structural transformation from the agriculture sector to the industry sector. The study suggests that the Vietnamese government needs to more strongly implement policies in transforming the economic growth model and structure associated with reducing GHG emissions to achieve the net zero target by 2050, especially focusing on reducing GHG emissions in the industry and transportation sectors.