FORECASTING THE RICE EXPORT OUTPUT USING EXPONENTIAL METHODS

Abstract

This study investigates the exponential methods in forecasting Vietnam's rice export output for the last six months of 2024. Three forecasting methods, including the single exponential, method, the Holt exponential method, and the Winters Exponential method, were applied to the statistical data of rice export volume from 2020 to June 2024. The forecasting methods were evaluated using the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and the holdout period method. The results indicate that the Holt Exponential method has the lowest MAPE and is the most suitable for forecasting rice export output.