Artificial Intelligence and Structural Transformation of Vietnam’s Labor Market: An Analysis of Adaptation Scenarios and Policy Implications

Abstract

This paper investigates the multidimensional impacts of Artificial Intelligence (AI) on Vietnam’s labor market, employing the analytical framework developed by the Tony Blair Institute (2024). By evaluating three primary channels - labor demand, labor supply, and workplace experience - the study indicates that AI has the potential to automate 23.8% of working hours in the private sector, boosting productivity while simultaneously risking the erosion of low-cost labor advantages. To achieve the “Jet Stream” growth scenario, the author proposes four strategic solutions: educational reform focusing on 4Cs skills, establishing an occupational risk early warning system, founding a lifelong learning support fund, and perfecting the legal framework for AI ethics. The research findings provide a scientific basis for policymaking to transform technological challenges into a breakthrough driver for national labor productivity.