Peaceful diplomacy in a time of geopolitical turmoil: Ceasefire initiatives and the restructur ing of the international order

Abstract

The world is undergoing a profound transformation, marking the end of the post-Cold War unipolar order and the rise of a volatile, multipolar, multicentered world order. In this context, diplomatic efforts often only achieve temporary ceasefires instead of lasting peace, creating a paradox of “ceasefire without peace”. This article analyzes typical cases in Ukraine and the Middle East, showing that negotiations are often dominated by the strategic calculations of great powers and the escalation of conflict on the battlefield. The role of the United Nations - de signed to maintain peace - is increasingly limited by the fragmentation of power and the weakening of multilateral institutions. This article is part of the research findings of the project “Forecasting adjustments to development strategies of major countries to 2050 and policy implications for Vietnam”