Research on parametric model representing risks for deep excavation construction in urban areas in Vietnam

Abstract

The paper proposes a parametric model to assess the evolving risk profile of deep excavation construction in urban areas of Vietnam. This parametric model integrates 12 key risk factors—synthesized from various studies—including soil instability and collapse, groundwater ingress, damage to adjacent structures, and worker safety hazards. The model employs stochastic differential equations (SDEs) to capture the time-varying dynamics of each risk, while accounting for interactions between risks and the effects of mitigation measures. The design of the model allows for realistic simulation of risk evolution, ensuring that risks gradually decrease over time as effective mitigation strategies are implemented and unrealized risks are reduced. Through Monte Carlo simulations, the model is tested and calibrated using empirical data from similar projects, expert knowledge, and its parameters—such as the interaction matrix and volatility functions—are estimated based on expert input. Experts evaluate this parametric model as realistic in modeling the variability of individual risks as well as the overall risk for excavation projects. They emphasize that this parametric approach can support construction managers in minimizing cumulative risks, thereby aiding proactive decision-making in resource allocation and risk mitigation planning. Validation through synthetic data demonstrates the model's ability to predict risk trajectories and improve risk management outcomes in complex urban deep excavation projects.