ECONOMIC RISK ASSESSMENT FOR THAC XANG HYDROPOWER PLANT TO SUPPORT DECISION MAKING ON FLOOD OPERATION
Abstract
The Decision Support System for Hydropower Plants (DSS-HP) is a tool designed to optimize water resource management and ensure safe operations of hydropower plants. Due to the uncertainties in water inflows forecasting, especially from rainfall forecasting, selecting appropriate operational scenarios based on these forecasts is a complex challenge. This paper presents a method for economic risks analysis for a DSS system which consists of Numerical weather model, Rainfall-Runoff model and Power generation simulator program. The risks are analized with different forecast scenarios in hydropower plant operations. For each operating scenario, calculations are made about the profits gained from accurate forecasts as well as the losses from inaccurate forecasts. The evaluation results support information for managers to make right operational decisions. A case study on flood catching operations at Thac Xang Hydropower Plant from 16th to 18th, May 2024 demonstrates that the method yields accurate analysis results, offering significant support for effective exploitation and operation.