The impact of US tariff policy on Vietnamese trade in the context of globalization

Abstract

This study examines the impact of US tariff policies on Vietnam–US trade amid rising protectionism after COVID-19. Using secondary data from Vietnam Customs, UN Comtrade, the World Bank, and reports from the U.S. Department of Commerce, USTR, and VCCI for 2010–2023, it combines qualitative policy analysis with a Difference-in-Differences model to assess the effects of US tariffs during 2017–2023 across sectors. Results show tariffed industries such as steel and wood faced export declines of 12–15%, while textiles and electronics were mainly affected by non-tariff barriers with compliance costs rising 18–22%. Impacts varied by period: 2017–2019 was dominated by import tariffs, whereas 2020–2023 saw technical barriers and supply chain controls. Vietnam’s responses focused on origin verification, FTA utilization, and market diversification. The study provides quantitative evidence of the heterogeneous effects of US tariffs and offers lessons for Vietnam on trade risk management and institutional reforms in the post-globalization era.