Asymmetric and Time-Varying Impacts of Economic Factors on CO₂ Emissions in Vietnam

Abstract

This study evaluates the impacts of key economic factors—foreign direct investment (FDI), trade openness, economic growth, and urbanization—on CO₂ emissions in Vietnam, using monthly time-series data spanning 1990–2023. To capture the nonlinear and asymmetric characteristics of the relationships between these economic variables and emissions, the analysis employs a semiparametric quantile Granger causality test and a lagged quantile regression (LQR) model. The results reveal heterogeneous effects across the emission quantiles: FDI and urbanization significantly increase emissions at higher quantiles; international trade tends to reduce emissions at the median level; while economic growth shows no stable or statistically significant association. These findings extend the empirical evidence for Vietnam from a dynamic and asymmetric perspective, providing policy implications for targeted and flexible emission-reduction strategies tailored to different development stages and actual pollution levels.