Financing high-speed railway projects in Vietnam: A comparative analysis of public investment, PPP and private investment models

Abstract

This study assesses the financial feasibility of alternative funding structures for Vietnam's North-South high-speed railway project. Drawing on infrastructure and project finance theories, the paper constructs a comparative framework for three models: public investment, Public-Private Partnership (PPP) with government guarantees and private sector participation. The analysis focuses on leverage structures, sensitivity to cost and revenue fluctuations and fiscal obligations arising from public guarantees. Findings suggest that full private sector financing is hardly feasible without significant state support. Guaranteed PPP models improve capital mobilization but increase contingent fiscal liabilities. Conversely, the public investment model demonstrates higher long-term financial stability due to reduced refinancing risks and increased resilience against demand uncertainty.