POPULATION AGING IN THE ERA OF DECLINING FERTILITY: EXISTENTIAL CHALLENGES AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT PATHWAYS FOR VIETNAM

Abstract

Population aging is an inevitable global trend, driven by increased life expectancy and a prolonged decline in the total fertility rate (TFR) below replacement level. This article analyzes the current situation and underlying causes of persistently low fertility in high-income countries and in Vietnam. It points out that once the TFR drops below 2.1 for several decades, almost no country has succeeded in restoring replacement-level fertility, despite implementing numerous supportive policies at great cost. Through the analysis of demographic, economic, and social data from over 40 countries, combined with typical surveys conducted in Ho Chi Minh City and Japan, the author identifies five root causes of fertility decline. Based on these insights, a comprehensive system of solutions is proposed to shift from unsustainable to sustainable aging. Key measures include: ensuring a living wage for a family of four; reforming the social insurance system; expanding public housing and preschool education; promoting gender equality; preserving Vietnamese cultural traditions that value family life; educating citizens on knowledge and skills for building happy families; raising awareness of civic responsibility; and creating a social environment that is friendly to women and children.The article emphasizes that without decisive policy changes during the 2025–2050 period, Vietnam’s population could shrink from a peak of 107 million in 2050 to just 88 million by 2100, with further severe decline thereafter. Conversely, if strategic solutions are comprehensively implemented, Vietnam can fully achieve the goal: happy elderly, a prosperous nation, and a thriving people.