APPLICATION OF ENSEMBLE FORECAST METHOD TO FORECAST THE TYPHOON T RACK FOR 5 DAYS IN THE EAST SEA

Abstract

In this paper, the authors introduce superensemble methods including Breeding of growing mode (BGM), Kalman filter (LETKF) and WRF with input data which are components of the global ensemble forecast. To

construct an operational procedure for ensemble typhoon track forecast with a forecast period up to 5 days, the authors have used the filtering method from 2009 to 2011 and its application from 2012 to 2013. Forecasting error of distance for 24, 48, 72, 96 and 120 hours based on the BGM method on RAMS model is about 125, 197, 265, 275 and 354 km; 145, 182, 290, 263 and 376 km for LETKF on WRF model; and 107, 117, 272, 339 and 365 km for WRF with input data which are components of the global ensemble forecast respectively. This result can meet the current requirements of typhoon track forecast for the 5-day period on the East sea.